Abstract
PURPOSE: The metabolic score for insulin resistance (METS-IR) index is an emerging surrogate predictor of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to evaluate the association between the METS-IR index and the risk of T2DM in non-obese Japanese adults. METHODS: A total of 12,290 non-obese participants were selected from the NAGALA prospective cohort study conducted from 2004 to 2015. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between the baseline METS-IR index and risk of T2DM. Generalized additive models were used to identify nonlinear relationships. In addition, we performed subgroup analyses and interaction tests. Results were expressed as hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 2050 days, 176 (1.43%) incident T2DM occurred. The fully adjusted HR (95% CI) for the incidence of T2DM in non-obese adults was 1.17 (HR=1.17, 95% CI: 1.09-1.27, P<0.001) for every 1-unit increase in the METS-IR index. The risk of developing T2DM increased with the quartile of change in the METS-IR index, after adjustment for multiple potential confounding, the HRs for the Q4 group versus the Q1 group was 4.01 (95% CI, 1.39-11.57). Generalized additive models also showed a cumulative increase in the risk of T2DM with increasing the METS-IR index. Time-dependent receiver operating curve suggested helpful discriminative power of the METS-IR index for T2DM. The C-statistics by the clinical risk factors significantly improve with the addition of the METS-IR index (from 0.862 to 0.875, P = 0.035); the discriminatory power and risk reclassification also appeared to be substantially better, with the category-free NRI of 0.216, and the IDI of 0.011. CONCLUSION: The METS-IR index was a significant and independent predictor for future T2DM development in non-obese adults. The METS-IR index may have clinical significance in identifying groups at high risk of T2DM.