Abstract
BACKGROUND: Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) has been suggested to reflect early renal dysfunction. We investigated the predictive significance of serum NGAL in predicting cardiovascular (CV) death in an old-age population with coronary heart disease (CHD). METHODS: In total, 633 CHD patients with a stable clinical condition were enrolled. The measurements of serum NGAL and other laboratory indices were performed within 24 hours after admission. Adjusted analysis was used to assess relationships between serum NGAL and CV death during the 10-year follow-up period. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that elevated NGAL levels were related to a higher prevalence of CV disease history [quartile 4, 2.41 (1.60-4.59), P-trend <0.001]. The Kaplan-Meier curve indicated that patients with high NGAL levels tended to have a higher rate of CV death than patients with low NGAL levels. A multivariate Cox model suggested that increased levels of NGAL were independently linked with elevated risk of CV death (HR=2.62, 95% CI 1.51-4.96, P<0.001) during the 10-year follow-up period, after adjusting for related confounding factors using sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve demonstrated that serum NGAL (AUC=0.917, 95% CI 0.895-0.940, P<0.001) had an ideal predictive value in predicting CV death. CONCLUSION: Serum levels of NGAL were elevated in patients with CHD and may be a new parameter that could independently predict CV death in these patients, which may strengthen its potential application in clinical practice.