Abstract
Neurobiological substrates of cognitive decline in cognitively normal older individuals have been investigated by resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging, but little is known about the relationship between longitudinal changes in the whole brain. In this study, we examined two-year changes in functional connectivity among 80 gray matter areas and investigated the relationship to two-year changes in cognitive performance. A cross-validated permutation variable importance measure was applied to select features related to a change in cognitive performance. Age-corrected changes in eleven pairs of functional connections were selected as important features, all related to brain areas that belong to the default mode network. A linear regression model with cross-validation demonstrated a mean correlation coefficient of 0.55 between measured and predicted changes in the cognitive composite score. These results suggest that intra- and inter-network connections in the default mode network are associated with cognitive changes over two years among cognitively normal individuals.