Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To compare an Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGboost) model with a multivariable logistic regression (LR) model for their ability to predict sepsis after extremely severe burns. METHODS: For this observational study, patient demographic and clinical information were collected from medical records. The two models were evaluated using area under curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Of the 103 eligible patients with extremely severe burns, 20 (19%) were in the sepsis group, and 83 (81%) in the non-sepsis group. The LR model showed that age, admission time, body index (BI), fibrinogen, and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were risk factors for sepsis. Comparing AUC of the ROC curves, the XGboost model had a higher predictive performance (0.91) than the LR model (0.88). The SHAP visualization tool indicated fibrinogen, NLR, BI, and age were important features of sepsis in patients with extremely severe burns. CONCLUSIONS: The XGboost model was superior to the LR model in predictive efficacy. Results suggest that, fibrinogen, NLR, BI, and age were correlated with sepsis after extremely severe burns.