Abstract
BACKGROUND: Black individuals have lower natriuretic peptide levels and greater risk of heart failure (HF) than white individuals. Higher N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is associated with increased risk of incident HF, but little information is available in black individuals. We examined race-specific differences in 1) the association of NT-proBNP with incident HF and 2) the predictive ability of NT-proBNP for incident HF across body mass index (BMI) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) categories. METHODS: In a prospective case-cohort study, baseline NT-proBNP was measured among 687 participants with incident HF and 2,923 (weighted 20,075) non-case randomly selected participants. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to assess the objectives of our study. Global Wald Chi-square score estimated from multivariable Cox models was used to assess predictive ability of NT-proBNP across BMI and eGFR categories. RESULTS: In the multivariable model, a doubling of NT-proBNP concentration was associated with greater risk of incident HF among white individuals [hazard ratio (HR): 1.73; 95% CI: 1.55-1.94] than black individuals (HR: 1.51; 95% CI: 1.34-1.70); Pinteraction by race = 0.024. Higher NT-proBNP was the strongest predictor of incident HF across all BMI and eGFR categories among white individuals. By contrast, among black individuals with obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) or eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the predictive ability of NT-proBNP for incident HF was attenuated. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of the association of higher NT-proBNP with incident HF risk was greater among white individuals than black individuals. The diminished ability of NT-proBNP to predict the risk of HF in black population with obesity or impaired kidney function highlights the need of further investigations.