Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of acute exacerbation helps select patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) for individualized therapy. The potential of lymphocyte subsets to function as clinical predictive factors for acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) remains uncertain. METHODS: In this single-center prospective cohort study with a 2-year follow-up, 137 patients aged 51 to 79 with AECOPD were enrolled. We examined the prognostic indicators of AECOPD by analyzing lymphocyte subsets and baseline symptom score. Furthermore, a predictive model was constructed to anticipate the occurrence of respiratory failure in patients experiencing AECOPD. RESULTS: The COPD Assessment Test (CAT) score combined with home oxygen therapy and CD4(+)CD8(+) T cells% to predict respiratory failure in AECOPD patients were the best (the area under the curves [AUC] = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.70-0.86, P < 0.0001, sensitivity: 60.4%, specificity: 86.8%). The nomogram model, the C index, calibration plot, decision curve analysis, and clinical impact curve all indicate the model's good predictive performance. The observed decrease in the proportions of CD4(+)CD8(+) T cells appears to be correlated with more unfavorable outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model, developed to forecast respiratory failure in patients with AECOPD, utilizing variables such as home oxygen therapy, CAT score, and CD4(+)CD8(+) T cells%, demonstrated a high level of practicality in clinical settings. CD4(+)CD8(+) T cells serve as a reliable and readily accessible predictor of AECOPD, exhibiting greater stability compared to other indices. It is less susceptible to subjective influences from patients or physicians. This model facilitated personalized estimations, enabling healthcare professionals to make informed decisions regarding preventive interventions.