Abstract
Exacerbations are a major cause of morbidity in asthma and generate high health costs. Identification and management of adults with asthma who are prone to exacerbations is of considerable importance as by this means it should be possible to reduce the number of patients who currently experience inadequately controlled disease. Exacerbations occur most frequently in individuals with severe disease. Other risk factors include a history of a recent exacerbation, co-morbidities such as a raised body mass index and psychological problems as well as current smoking and lower socio-economic status. A low FEV1, particularly if combined with the additional information from questionnaires helps predict exacerbations. Despite the association between these risk factors and exacerbations it remains difficult to accurately predict in an individual patient with asthma whether they will go on to develop an exacerbation in the future. A major aim of international guidelines on the management of asthma is to prevent future risks of exacerbations, but some patients, particularly those with severe disease, respond poorly to current therapies and continue to experience recurrent exacerbations. There is an unmet need for improved management strategies and drugs targeted at preventing asthma exacerbations. Monitoring induced sputum eosinophil cell counts is helpful in preventing exacerbations in some patient with severe asthma. Future developments are likely to include the identification of better biomarkers to predict exacerbations or the cause of exacerbations, augmentation of the immunological response to viruses at the time of the exacerbation, the use of telemonitoring in patients with severe asthma and the development of improved therapies targeted at reducing exacerbations.