Abstract
Lead has been shown to be associated with elevated blood pressure in males in the NHANES II survey and in numerous other studies. This study confirms the association in males aged 20 to 74 and documents a significant, although weaker, association in females as well. Prospective cardiovascular disease studies such as the Framingham study indicate that increases in blood pressure should be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Using electrocardiogram data from NHANES II, this study confirms the expected association of lead with left ventricular hypertrophy (p less than 0.01). Such an association with permanent cardiovascular changes adds weight to the blood pressure findings. The logistic risk coefficients from the Framingham study can be combined with the study's association between lead and blood pressure to examine its implication for more serious outcomes. The results suggest that a halving of the population mean blood lead level would reduce myocardial infarctions by approximately 24,000 events per year and incidence of all cardiovascular disease by over 100,000. These numbers suggest a small attributable risk compared to the vast incidence of cardiovascular disease in the U.S., but a large attributable risk compared to most environmental toxins. Several biological mechanisms have been identified, with different implications for the use of bone lead as an exposure measure.