Abstract
BACKGROUND: Elevated lactate levels are reliable biomarkers of tissue hypoperfusion and metabolic stress. However, their prognostic significance in extensive burn patients undergoing early excision and grafting (EEG) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of perioperative lactate levels in predicting clinical deterioration following EEG in patients with extensive burns. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, adult burn patients with ≥ 50% total burn surface area (TBSA) or ≥ 20% full-thickness burns treated between March 2021 and September 2023 were included. Patients were categorized into Deterioration and Non-Deterioration groups based on changes in Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores. Statistical analyses included univariate and multivariate logistic regression, as well as receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 patients, 37.8% were classified into the Deterioration Group. Compared with the Non-Deterioration Group, these patients presented with a significantly higher burn index (BI), larger surgical area, and greater intraoperative blood transfusion volumes. Temporal trends in lactate levels appeared to differ between groups: lactate levels peaked on POD1 and returned to baseline by postoperative Day 3(POD3) in the Non-Deterioration Group, whereas they remained persistently elevated in the Deterioration Group. Among all perioperative time points, lactate levels on POD3 were significantly higher in the Deterioration Group (2.88 ± 0.65 mmol/L vs. 2.27 ± 0.68 mmol/L, p < 0.001) and were independently associated with clinical deterioration clinical deterioration (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.18-8.71, p = 0.031). POD3 lactate levels demonstrated the highest discriminatory performance for identifying postoperative deterioration (AUC = 0.761, 95% CI 0.656-0.866). CONCLUSIONS: Among perioperative lactate levels in patients undergoing EEG for extensive burns, POD3 lactate levels were significantly associated with clinical deterioration and may serve as a useful marker to guide early risk assessment and supportive interventions.