Abstract
BACKGROUND: Platelet distribution width (PDW) is a marker of platelet anisocytosis that increases with platelet activation. The clinical implications of PDW in HCC are not well-defined. This study aimed to determine whether PDW could predict recurrence in patients with HCC after resection. METHODS: Between January and December 2008, 471 patients with HCC were recruited retrospectively. The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with HCC were analyzed based on the relationship between the two PDW groups. Kaplan-Meier curves and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between PDW and disease-free survival (DFS). A novel nomogram was developed based on the identified independent risk factors. Its accuracy was evaluated using a calibration curve and concordance index. The predictive value was evaluated using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: PDW was significantly associated with direct bilirubin, total bilirubin, urea, and prothrombin time. Patients with PDW ≥ 17.1 were a significantly shorter DFS than those with PDW < 17.1 (17.98% vs 49.83%, p< 0.001). Multivariate analysis determined that alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), carcinoembryonic antigen, microvascular invasion (MVI), tumor size, and tumor number were the independent variables associated with DFS. Patients with PDW ≥ 17.1 had a hazard ratio of 1.381 (95% confidence interval: 1.069-1.783, p = 0.014) for DFS. AFP, PDW, MVI, tumor size, and tumor number were identified as preoperative independent risk factors for DFS and used to establish the nomogram. Calibration curve analysis revealed that the standard curve fitted well with the predicted curve. ROC curve analysis demonstrated the high efficiency of the nomogram. CONCLUSION: Increased PDW may predict recurrence-free survival in patients with HCC. Our nomogram model also performed well in predicting patient prognoses.