Abstract
BACKGROUND: A practical prognostic prediction model is absent for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after curative ablation. We aimed to develop a radiomics model based on gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced magnetic resonance (MR) images to predict HCC recurrence after curative ablation. METHODS: We retrospectively enrolled 132 patients with HCC who underwent curative ablation. Patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 92) and validation (n = 40) cohorts. Radiomic features were extracted from gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced MR images of the liver before curative ablation, and various baseline clinical characteristics were collected. Cox regression and random survival forests were used to construct models that incorporated radiomic features and/or clinical characteristics. The predictive performance of the different models was compared using the concordance index (C-index) and decision curves analysis (DCA). A cutoff derived from the combined model was used for risk categorization, and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was compared between groups using the Kaplan-Meier survival curve analysis. RESULTS: Twenty radiomic features and four clinical characteristics were identified and used for model construction. The radiomics model constructed by tumoral and peritumoral radiomic features had better predictive performance (C-index 0.698, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.640-0.755) compared with the clinical model (C-index 0.614, 95% CI 0.499-0.695), while the combined model had the best predictive performance (C-index 0.706, 95% CI 0.638-0.763). A better net benefit was observed with the combined model compared with the other two models according to the DCA. Distinct RFS distributions were observed when patients were categorized based on the cutoff derived from the combined model (Log rank test, p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: The radiomics model which combined radiomic features extracted from gadoxetic acid disodium-enhanced MR images with clinical characteristics could predict HCC recurrence after curative ablation.