Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To develop an application dynamically monitoring the prostate cancer (PCa) risk for patients to assess their own progression of PCa risk at home. METHODS: Between January 2010 and December 2019, all of the 1697 patients underwent transrectal ultrasound prostate biopsy at the cancer center, which is one of the Chinese Prostate Cancer Consortium. Patients' clinical parameters from January 2010 to May 2018 were used to establish models that consisted of several risk factors with P value <0.1 in univariate analysis and with P value <0.05 in multivariate analysis (n=1113), including model 1 (predicting PCa), model 2 (predicting PCa with high Gleason scores (7 or higher)) and model 3 (predicting PCa with the high clinical stage (T2b or higher)). Other patients from June 2018 to December 2019 were used to validate models (n=440). Patients with a lack of sufficient data were eventually excluded (n=144). RESULTS: A total of 1553 patients were involved in this study, and an application was used to perform the models. The predictive cut-off value and area under the curves (AUCs) of model 1, 2 and 3 were, respectively, calculated (cut-off: 0.53, 0.38 and 0.40, AUCs: 0.88, 0.89 and 0.89). Using a cut-off value of 10%, three models obtained a high sensitivity (>95%). Besides, more patients can be correctly reclassified via our models (42.9 to 55.5%). Decision curve analyses revealed a decent net benefit in any probability for models. These results were well verified in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: This application showed decent performance in predicting the risk of PCa and clinicopathology, which was available and convenient for patients to self-assess the progress of PCa risks so that being better to participate in disease management.