Abstract
BACKGROUND: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index is a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance and is associated with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the long-term effect of the TyG index on the incidence of MACEs remains unclear. We aimed to investigate the association between the cumulative TyG index and the risk of MACEs in patients with T2DM. METHODS: This post-hoc analysis of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial assessed patients' (T2DM > 3 months) cumulative TyG index and MACE data from the study database. Five fasting blood glucose and triglyceride measurements, at baseline and the first four visits, were taken from 5695 participants who had not experienced MACEs. Cumulative exposure to the TyG index was calculated as the weighted sum of the mean TyG index value for each time interval (value × time). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline analysis were used to determine the association between the cumulative TyG index and MACEs. The incremental predictive value of the cumulative TyG index was further assessed. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 5.09 years, 673 (11.82%) MACEs occurred, including 256 (4.50%) cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths, 288 (5.06%) non-fatal myocardial infarctions (MIs), and 197 (3.46%) strokes. The risk of developing MACEs increased with the cumulative TyG index quartile. After adjusting for multiple potential confounders, the hazard ratios for the very high cumulative TyG index group versus the low group were 1.59 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.17-2.16), 1.97 (95% CI 1.19-3.26), and 1.66 (95% CI 1.02-2.70) for overall MACEs, CVD death, and non-fatal MI, respectively. Restricted cubic spline analysis also showed a cumulative increase in the risk of MACEs with an increase in the magnitude of the cumulative TyG index. The addition of the cumulative TyG index to a conventional risk model for MACEs improved the C-statistics, net reclassification improvement value, and integrated discrimination improvement value. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with T2DM, the cumulative TyG index independently predicts the incidence of MACEs, and monitoring the long-term TyG index may assist with optimized-for-risk stratification and outcome prediction for MACEs. Trial registration URL: http://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov . Unique identifier: NCT00000620.