Abstract
BACKGROUND: The association between osteocalcin and mortality has been scantly studied. We aimed to investigate the association between osteocalcin along with its trajectories and mortality based on long-term longitudinal data. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of 9413 type 2 diabetic patients with at least three measurements of total serum osteocalcin within 3 years since their first inpatient diagnosis of type 2 diabetes. Baseline, mean values of osteocalcin levels and their trajectories were used as exposures. A multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association of osteocalcin levels and their trajectories with mortality. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 5.37 years, 1638 patients died, of whom 588 were due to cardiovascular events. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) across quintiles of baseline osteocalcin levels were 2.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.42-3.42), 1.65 (95% CI 1.37-1.99), 1.17 (95% CI 0.96-1.42), 1.00, and 1.92 (95% CI 1.60-2.30) for all-cause mortality, and 3.52 (95% CI 2.63-4.71), 2.00 (95% CI 1.46-2.73), 1.03 (95% CI 0.72-1.47), 1.00, 1.67 (95% CI 1.21-2.31) for CVD mortality, respectively. When we used the mean values of osteocalcin as the exposure, U-shaped associations were also found. These U-shaped associations were consistent among patients of different baseline characteristics. Patients with a stable or even increasing trajectory of osteocalcin may have a lower risk of both all-cause and CVD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: A U-shape association between baseline osteocalcin and mortality was observed among patients with type 2 diabetes. Patients with lower levels of serum osteocalcin during follow-ups had higher risks for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality.