Abstract
Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) is a premalignant clonal disorder that progresses to multiple myeloma (MM), or other plasma-cell or lymphoid disorders at a rate of 1%/year. We evaluate the contribution of body mass index (BMI) to MGUS progression beyond established clinical factors in a population-based study. We identified 594 MGUS through a population-based screening study in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1995 and 2003. Follow-up time was calculated from the date of MGUS to last follow-up, death, or progression to MM/another plasma-cell/lymphoid disorder. BMI (kg/m(2) < 25/≥25) was measured close to screening date. We used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of BMI ≥ 25 versus BMI < 25 with MGUS progression and also evaluated the corresponding c-statistic and 95% CI to describe discrimination of the model for MGUS progression. Median follow-up was 10.5 years (range:0-25), while 465 patients died and 57 progressed and developed MM (N = 39), AL amyloidosis (N = 8), lymphoma (N = 5), or Waldenstrom-macroglobulinemia (N = 5). In univariate analyses, BMI ≥ 25 (HR = 2.14,CI:1.05-4.36, P = 0.04), non-IgG (HR = 2.84, CI:1.68-4.80, P = 0.0001), high monoclonal (M) protein (HR = 2.57, CI:1.50-4.42, P = 0.001), and abnormal free light chain ratio (FLC(r)) (HR = 3.39, CI:1.98-5.82, P < 0.0001) were associated with increased risk of MGUS progression, and were independently associated in a multivariable model (c-statistic = 0.75, CI:0.68-0.82). The BMI association was stronger among females (HR = 3.55, CI:1.06-11.9, P = 0.04) vs. males (HR = 1.39, CI:0.57-3.36, P = 0.47), although the interaction between BMI and sex was not significant (P = 0.15). In conclusion, high BMI is a prognostic factor for MGUS progression, independent of isotype, M protein, and FLC(r). This association may be stronger among females.