Abstract
BACKGROUND: Moderate-to-severe post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) pancreatitis contributes to most of the poor outcomes of patients with post-ERCP pancreatitis (PEP). However, it remains unclear which part of the patient is more vulnerable to moderate-to-severe PEP (MS PEP). In this study, we aimed to identify the risk factors independently associated with MS PEP. METHODS: Consecutive patients with native papilla who had undergone ERCP were included in this study. The patient-related and procedure-related variables were retrieved from a prospectively maintained ERCP database. The primary outcome was the incidence of PEP. MS PEP was defined as a prolonged hospital stay of ≥4 days (as per the Cotton criteria) or the presence of organ failure (as per the revised Atlanta criteria). A logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify the risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 6,944 patients with native papilla who had undergone elective ERCP from January 2010 to February 2022 were included in this study. Among these 6,944 patients, 362 (5.2%) patients developed PEP. Among these 362 patients, 76 (1.1%) or 17 (0.2%) had MS PEP as per the Cotton criteria and the revised Atlanta criteria, respectively. The logistic analysis revealed that the independent risk factors for overall and mild PEP were similar, and included being female and inadvertent pancreatic duct (PD) cannulation. A total cannulation time >15 min was also found to be an independent risk factor for MS PEP as defined by both the Cotton criteria and the revised Atlanta criteria. CONCLUSIONS: This study found that female patients and those who had inadvertent PD cannulation were at risk of mild PEP. A total cannulation time >15 min was also found to be a risk factor for developing MS PEP.