Abstract
BACKGROUND: Esophagogastric anastomotic leak (AL) is a severe complication following esophageal resection. This study aims to explore preliminarily whether the ratio of the gastric conduit length to the thorax length can be regarded as a potential prognostic variable for AL, and if so, a cut-off value can be found to divide the patients into distinct risk groups. METHODS: We retrospectively reviewed the clinical data of 273 patients who underwent esophagectomy. The gastric conduit length, the thorax length, and other covariates were collected. Logistic regression was first conducted to probe the rationality of the ratio as a risk indicator of AL. Then the dichotomizing analysis was applied to find the optimal cut-off value. RESULTS: The incidence of AL was 12.5% (34/273). The coefficient of the ratio in the logistic regression equation was -7.901 with P<0.001, which indicated that the larger the ratio, the smaller the risk of AL. Further smoothed scatter plots revealed that a potential step function of the ratio of AL incidence exists, of which the steep part ranges from 1.74 to 1.90. Results of the accurate cut-off value search through a minimum P value approach give the optimal dichotomization point of 1.79. CONCLUSIONS: The ratio of the gastric conduit length to the thorax length can reflect the tension in the anastomosis. The research proposes that surgeons can control the length of the gastric conduit during reconstruction to reduce the tension in the anastomosis and thus lead to a decrease in the incidence of AL.