Abstract
BACKGROUND: A number of models have been built to evaluate risk in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, accurate prediction of mortality at early medical contact is difficult. This study sought to develop and validate a risk score to predict in-hospital mortality among patients with ACS using variables available at early medical contact. METHODS: A total of 62,546 unselected ACS patients from 150 tertiary hospitals who were admitted between 2014 and 2017 and enrolled in the Improving Care for Cardiovascular Disease in China-Acute Coronary Syndrome (CCC-ACS) project, were randomly assigned (at a ratio of 7:3) to a training dataset (n=43,774) and a validation dataset (n=18,772). Based on the identified predictors which were available prior to any blood test, a new point-based risk score for in-hospital death, CCC-ACS score, was derived and validated. The CCC-ACS score was then compared with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score. RESULTS: The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9% in both the training and validation datasets. The CCC-ACS score, a new point-based risk score, was developed to predict in-hospital mortality using 7 variables that were available before any blood test including age, systolic blood pressure, cardiac arrest, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, history of heart failure, severe clinical conditions (acute heart failure or cardiogenic shock), and electrocardiographic ST-segment deviation. This new risk score had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.84 (P=0.10 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the training dataset and 0.85 (P=0.13 for Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test) in the validation dataset. The CCC-ACS score was comparable to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of in-hospital death in the validation dataset. CONCLUSIONS: The newly developed CCC-ACS score, which utilizes factors that are acquirable at early medical contact, may be able to stratify the risk of in-hospital death in patients with ACS. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT02306616.