Abstract
BACKGROUND: Our previous study developed Liaoning score as a non-invasive approach for predicting esophageal varices (EVs) in liver cirrhosis. This nationwide multicenter cross-sectional study aimed to externally validate the diagnostic accuracy of Liaoning score and further evaluate its performance for predicting high-risk EVs. METHODS: Cirrhotic patients with acute gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) without history of endoscopic variceal therapy who underwent endoscopic examinations at their admissions were included. Liaoning score and several non-invasive liver fibrosis scores, including aspartate aminotransferase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI), AST to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), fibrosis 4 index (FIB-4), King, and Lok scores, were evaluated. Area under curves (AUCs), cut-off value, sensitivity, and specificity were calculated. RESULTS: Overall, 612 patients were included. The prevalence of EVs and high-risk EVs was 96.2% and 95.6%, respectively. In overall patients, the AUCs of Liaoning score for predicting EVs and high-risk EVs were higher than non-invasive liver fibrosis scores (0.737 versus 0.626-0.721; 0.734 versus 0.611-0.719). The cut-off value of Liaoning score for high-risk EVs was 0.477 with a sensitivity of 81.96% and a specificity of 65.22%. In patients with hematemesis, Liaoning score could significantly predict EVs and high-risk EVs (AUCs =0.708 and 0.702, respectively), but not non-invasive liver fibrosis scores. The cut-off value of Liaoning score for high-risk EVs was 0.437 with a sensitivity of 83.16% and a specificity of 60%. CONCLUSIONS: Liaoning score should be a non-invasive alternative for predicting EVs and high-risk EVs in cirrhotic patients with acute GIB.