Abstract
BACKGROUND: Obesity is a predominant factor in development of type 2 diabetes but to which extent adolescent obesity influences adult diabetes is unclear. We investigated the association between body mass index (BMI) in young men and subsequent type 2 diabetes and how, in diagnosed diabetes, adolescent BMI relates to glycemic control and diabetes complications. METHODS: Baseline data from the Swedish Conscript Register for men drafted 1968-2005 was combined with data from the National Diabetes and Patient registries. Diabetes risk was estimated through Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival estimates. Relationships between BMI, glycemic control and diabetes complications were assessed through multiple linear and logistic regression. FINDINGS: Among 1,647,826 men, 63,957 (3·88%) developed type 2 diabetes over a median follow-up of 29.0 years (IQR[21.0-37.0]). The risk of diabetes within 40 years after conscription was nearly 40% in individuals with adolescent BMI ≥35 kg/m(2). Compared to BMI 18·5-<20 kg/m(2) (reference), diabetes risk increased in a linear fashion from HR 1·18(95%CI 1·15-1·21) for BMI 20-<22·5 kg/m(2) to HR 15·93(95%CI 14·88-17·05) for BMI ≥35 kg/m(2), and a difference in age at onset of 11·4 years was seen. Among men who developed diabetes, higher adolescent BMI was associated with higher HbA1c levels and albuminuria rates. INTERPRETATION: Rising adolescent BMI was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes diagnosed at a younger age, with poorer metabolic control, and a greater prevalence of albuminuria, all suggestive of worse prognosis.