Abstract
Karst in Southwest China, recognized as biodiversity hotspots, exhibits heightened sensitivity to climate change. The effects of climate change on these ecosystems via species distribution and population genetics remain inadequately investigated. This study presents the first genetic analysis of the endemic karst species Odorrana kweichowensis, utilizing mitochondrial gene fragments COI and ND2 to assess genetic structure and historical population dynamics. We further predict habitat suitability and genetic diversity under four climate scenarios for 2050 and 2070. Our findings reveal no significant genetic differentiation among populations, and the rapid expansion experienced in the past may have been driven by climate change. By 2050, except for the RCP8.5 scenario, we anticipate over 50% of haplotypes and sampling localities to persist. However, by 2070, only the RCP2.6 scenario maintains over 20% of haplotypes and nucleotide diversity, with the other scenarios predicting significant losses. Particularly under RCP8.5, all collected sampling localities face habitat loss. Nonetheless, suitable habitats persist near current protected areas. Thus, conservation efforts should prioritize the protection of habitats projected to remain beyond 2050, particularly those yet to be recognized as protected areas.