Abstract
Whether non-arctic species persisted in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is highly debated. Until now, the debate has mostly focused on plants, with little consideration for other groups of organisms, e.g. the numerous plant-dependent insect species. Here, we study the late-Quaternary evolution of the European range of a boreo-montane leaf beetle, Gonioctena intermedia, which feeds exclusively on the boreal and temperate trees Prunus padus and Sorbus aucuparia Using species distribution models, we estimated the congruence between areas of past and present suitable climate for this beetle and its host plants. Then we derived historical hypotheses from the congruent range estimates, and evaluated their compatibility with observed DNA sequence variation at five independent loci. We investigated compatibility using computer simulations of population evolution under various coalescence models. We find strong evidence for range modifications in response to late-Quaternary climate changes, and support for the presence of populations of G. intermedia in northern Europe since the beginning of the last glaciation. The presence of a co-dependent insect in the region through the LGM provides new evidence supporting the glacial survival of cold-tolerant tree species in northern Europe.