Abstract
BACKGROUND: Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a devastating illness with high mortality rates. Like influenza, endemic IMD is seasonal, peaking in winter. Studies suggest that circulation of influenza virus may influence the timing and magnitude of IMD winter peaks. METHODS: This ecological study used weekly data from 2 nationwide surveillance programs: Viral Watch (proportion of outpatient influenza-positive cases from throat or nasal swab samples) and GERMS-SA (laboratory-confirmed cases of IMD), occurring across South Africa from 2003 through 2018 in all age bands. A bivariate time series analysis using wavelet transform was conducted to determine cocirculation of the diseases and the time lag between the peak seasons. We modeled excess meningococcal disease cases attributable to influenza cocirculation, using univariate regression spline models. Stata and R statistical software packages were used for the analysis. RESULTS: A total of 5256 laboratory-confirmed IMD cases were reported, with an average annual incidence of 0.23 episodes per 100 000 population and a mean seasonal peak during week 32 (±3 weeks). Forty-two percent of swab samples (10 421 of 24 741) were positive for influenza during the study period. The mean peak for all influenza occurred at week 26 (±4 weeks). There was an average lag time of 5 weeks between annual influenza and IMD seasons. Overall, 5% (1%-9%) of IMD cases can be attributable to influenza cocirculation, with, on average, 17 excess IMD cases per year attributable to influenza. CONCLUSIONS: A quantifiable proportion of IMD in South Africa is associated with influenza cocirculation; therefore, seasonal influenza vaccination may have an effect on preventing a small portion of IMD in addition to preventing influenza.