Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of pelvic lymph node metastasis (PLNM) in patients with prostate cancer (PCa) is crucial for determining appropriate treatment options. Here, we built a PLNM-Risk calculator to obtain a precisely informed decision about whether to perform extended pelvic lymph node dissection (ePLND). METHODS: The PLNM-Risk calculator was developed in 280 patients and verified internally in 71 patients and externally in 50 patients by integrating a set of radiologists' interpretations, clinicopathological factors and newly refined imaging indicators from MR images with radiomics machine learning and deep transfer learning algorithms. Its clinical applicability was compared with Briganti and Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) nomograms. FINDINGS: The PLNM-Risk achieved good diagnostic discrimination with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.90-0.96), 0.92 (95% CI, 0.84-0.97) and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.62-0.87) in the training/validation, internal test and external test cohorts, respectively. If the number of ePLNDs missed was controlled at < 2%, PLNM-Risk provided both a higher number of ePLNDs spared (PLNM-Risk 59.6% vs MSKCC 44.9% vs Briganti 38.9%) and a lower number of false positives (PLNM-Risk 59.3% vs MSKCC 70.1% and Briganti 72.7%). In follow-up, patients stratified by the PLNM-Risk calculator showed significantly different biochemical recurrence rates after surgery. INTERPRETATION: The PLNM-Risk calculator offers a noninvasive clinical biomarker to predict PLNM for patients with PCa. It shows improved accuracy of diagnosis support and reduced overtreatment burdens for patients with findings suggestive of PCa. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province (BE2017756) and the Suzhou Science and Technology Bureau-Science and Technology Demonstration Project (SS201808).