Abstract
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most common malignant tumors in women. In addition, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive (HER2+) BC is overexpressed in 25% of BC patients, resulting in the predicament of poor prognosis. Although first- and second-line treatments have been established, optimum third-line treatment is still mired in controversies for HER2+ metastatic BC (mBC). Therefore, this study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of neratinib plus capecitabine (N+C) and lapatinib plus capecitabine (L+C) over a 5-year time horizon from a payer perspective. METHODS: A half-cycle corrected four-state Markov model was established to simulate the course of BC events and deaths in N+C and L+C armed patients. The data of this model were derived from NCT01808573 trail and other published literatures. One-way deterministic sensitivity analysis (DSA) was conducted to investigate the impact of variables and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed based on second-order Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, subgroup analysis was performed to verify its cost-effectiveness in China. RESULT: The base-case results found that N+C was in dominant position in 82.70% of the generation scenarios, providing an improvement of 0.17 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and a reduction of $1,861.28 compared with L+C. The ICER was $-1,3294.86/QALY, which did not exceed the willingness to pay (WTP) threshold, while in subgroup, the ICER decreased to $-2,448.17/QALY. CONCLUSION: This analysis indicated that the combination of neratinib plus capecitabine is likely to be cost-effective in comparison with lapatinib plus capecitabine in patients with HER2+ mBC who continues to progress during or after second-line HER2-targeted therapy. So neratinib plus capecitabine can become a third-line treatment option.