Abstract
The Lanbazi landslide, a typical reservoir landslide in the Three Gorges Reservoir, has exhibited significant and increasing deformation over the past two years, posing a severe threat to the safety of nearby residents' lives and property. This study employed a combination of field investigation, engineering geological survey, SBAS-InSAR interpretation, and RAMMS numerical simulation to predict and analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of landslide deformation and the instability movement of the Lanbazi landslide. The results suggest that the deformation rate of the landslide ranges from - 73.5 mm/a to 24.7 mm/a from January 2022 to December 2024, and the deformation of the middle and rear edge of the landslide is the largest and the movement rate is the most significant. The RAMMS software is used to calculate the movement process of the secondary potential landslide instability area. The total time from the start to the end of the landslide is 275 s, the maximum movement speed is 25.2 m/s, the maximum movement accumulation height is 31 m, the maximum impact force is 1265.2 kPa, and the landslide accumulation body will eventually flow into the Yangtze River, which will produce a surge of up to 11.7 m. This study innovatively combines SBAS-InSAR and RAMMS numerical simulation technology to realize the collaborative analysis of landslide deformation monitoring and instability motion prediction. This method breaks through the separation problem of deformation analysis and disaster prediction in traditional research.