Abstract
Gully evolution remains poorly understood, largely because multidecadal analysis is lacking. Large gullies (called lavaka) that pepper Madagascar's highlands are generally attributed to human impact; but longitudinal data are few, and anthropogenic causation is inferred not verified. We focus on Lac Alaotra, Madagascar's largest lake and wetland, its major rice-growing region, and an ecological hotspot surrounded by fault-controlled steep hills with abundant lavaka. Analysis of historical aerial photographs and recent orthoimagery reveals that the proportion of highly active lavaka has decreased since mid-20th century. At the same time, human population, farming intensity, and livestock density have increased exponentially. This suggests that background factors, including seismicity, are primary drivers of lavaka formation. Although human activities may contribute to erosion overall, land management policies that overemphasize human causation of gullying and neglect background forcing factors (in Madagascar and elsewhere) are unlikely to be effective in erosion mitigation.