Abstract
Background/Objectives: Global warming and rising CO(2) concentrations pose significant challenges to plant systems. Amid these pressures, this study contributes to understanding how tropical species respond by simultaneously evaluating reproductive and genetic traits. It specifically investigates the effects of maternal exposure to warming and elevated CO(2) on progeny physiology, genetic diversity, and population structure in Stylosanthes capitata, a resilient forage legume native to Brazil. Methods: Maternal plants were cultivated under controlled treatments, including ambient conditions (control), elevated CO(2) at 600 ppm (eCO(2)), elevated temperature at +2 °C (eTE), and their combined exposure (eTEeCO(2)), within a Trop-T-FACE field facility (Temperature Free-Air Controlled Enhancement and Free-Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment). Seed traits (seeds per inflorescence, hundred-seed mass, abortion, non-viable seeds, coat color, germination at 32, 40, 71 weeks) and abnormal seedling rates were quantified. Genetic diversity metrics included the average (A) and effective (Ae) number of alleles, observed (Ho) and expected (He) heterozygosity, and inbreeding coefficient (Fis). Population structure was assessed using Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA), Analysis of Molecular Variance (AMOVA), number of migrants per generation (Nm), and genetic differentiation index (Fst). Two- and three-way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) were used to evaluate factor effects. Results: Compared to control conditions, warming increased seeds per inflorescence (+46%), reduced abortion (-42.9%), non-viable seeds (-57%), and altered coat color. The germination speed index (GSI +23.5%) and germination rate (Gr +11%) improved with warming; combined treatments decreased germination time (GT -9.6%). Storage preserved germination traits, with warming enhancing performance over time and reducing abnormal seedlings (-54.5%). Conversely, elevated CO(2) shortened GSI in late stages, impairing germination efficiency. Warming reduced Ae (-35%), He (-20%), and raised Fis (maternal 0.50, progeny 0.58), consistent with the species' mixed mating system; A and Ho were unaffected. Allele frequency shifts suggested selective pressure under eTE. Warming induced slight structure in PCoA, and AMOVA detected 1% (maternal) and 9% (progeny) variation. Fst = 0.06 and Nm = 3.8 imply environmental influence without isolation. Conclusions: Warming significantly shapes seed quality, reproductive success, and genetic diversity in S. capitata. Improved reproduction and germination suggest adaptive advantages, but higher inbreeding and reduced diversity may constrain long-term resilience. The findings underscore the need for genetic monitoring and broader genetic bases in cultivars confronting environmental stressors.