Abstract
This study investigated the germination capacity (endogenous factor) of Petagnaea gussonei (Spreng.) Rauschert, an endemic monospecific plant considered as a relict species of the ancient Mediterranean Tertiary flora. This investigation focused also on the temporal trends of soil-use, climate and desertification (exogenous factors) across the natural range of P. gussonei. The final germination percentage showed low values between 14 and 32%, the latter obtained with GA(3) and agar at 10 °C. The rising temperatures in the study area will further increase the dormancy of P. gussonei, whose germination capacity was lower and slower at temperatures higher than 10 °C. A further limiting factor of P. gussonei is its dormancy, which seems to be morpho-physiological. Regarding climate trends, in the period 1931-2020, the average temperature increased by 0.5 °C, from 15.4 to 15.9 °C, in line with the projected climate changes throughout the twenty-first century across the Mediterranean region. The average annual rainfall showed a relatively constant value of c. 900 mm, but extreme events grew considerably in the period 1991-2020. Similarly, the land affected by desertification expanded in an alarming way, by increasing from 21.2% in 2000 to 47.3% in 2020. Soil-use changes created also a complex impacting mosaic where c. 40% are agricultural areas. The effective conservation of P. gussonei should be multilateral by relying on germplasm banks, improving landscape connectivity and vegetation cover, and promoting climate policies.