Abstract
Objective: To assess the effectiveness of three general prognostic models (APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA) with serum galactomannan antigen in a clinically suspected invasive aspergillosis (IA) subpopulation admitted to a respiratory medicine ICU and to identify azole-resistant Aspergillus fumigatus (ARAF) cases. Methodology and Results: A total of 235 clinically suspected IA patients were prospectively enrolled and observed 30-day mortality was 29.7%. The three general models showed poor discrimination assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs, <0.7) and good calibration (p = 0.92, 0.14, and 0.13 for APACHE II, SAPS II, and SOFA, respectively), evaluated using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests. However, discrimination was significantly better with galactomannan values (AUC, 0.924). In-vitro antifungal testing revealed higher minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) for 12/34 isolates (35.3%) whereas azole resistance was noted in 40% of Aspergillus fumigatus isolates (6/15) with two hotspot cyp51A mutations, G54R and P216L. Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with putative and probable IA (71.4% and 34.6%, respectively), had high mortality. The general prognostic model APACHE II seemed fairly accurate for this subpopulation. However, the use of local GM cut-offs calculated for mortality, may help the intensivists in prompt initiation or change of therapy for better outcome of patients. In addition, the high MICs highlight the need of antifungal surveillance to know the local resistance rate which might aid in patient treatment.