Perfect as the enemy of good: tracing transmissions with low-sensitivity tests to mitigate SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks

完美反而成了好的敌人:用低灵敏度的检测方法追踪传播途径以缓解SARS-CoV-2疫情爆发

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Abstract

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, governments and individuals have attempted a wide variety of strategies to limit the damage of the pandemic on human lives, population health, and economies. Contact tracing has been a commonly used strategy, and various approaches have been proposed and attempted. We summarise some methods of contact tracing and testing, considering the resources demanded by each and how features of SARS-CoV-2 transmission affect their effectiveness. We also propose an approach focusing on tracing transmission events, which can be particularly effective when superspreading events play a large role in transmission. Accounting for the best available evidence on a pathogen and for the availability of resources can make control strategies more effective, even if they are not perfect.

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