Abstract
Environmental stressors such as sea-level rise, erosion, and increased storm frequency and intensity are exposing coastal properties to greater amounts of damage. Coastal habitats like beaches, dunes, seagrasses, and wetlands can help reduce exposure and property damage. Using InVEST's Coastal Vulnerability Model, an exposure index value was calculated for every 250 m2 segment along the coastline in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties in Florida, USA. Nineteen sea level-by-habitat management scenarios were evaluated for a suite of shoreline segments across multiple exposures that can be used to inform local decision making as part of larger strategies for coastal management. Overall, a rise in sea level and degradation of coastal habitats could decrease the number of lower exposed shoreline segments and increase the number of higher exposed shoreline segments. These results were used to identify changes in the amount of potential residential property damage among different scenarios. Under high sea levels, additional protection to coastal habitats could reduce the amount of residential property damage resulting from one tropical cyclone event by $50.4 million (2018 US dollars (USD)) (by the year 2050) and by $71.8 million (2018 USD) (by the year 2100) in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties. This research demonstrates the effects that habitat type/abundance and sea-level rise could have on vulnerable coastlines. The results of the modeled scenarios can be incorporated into several recent community resiliency planning initiatives in the region to develop more robust management plans and preparations for a changing environment.