Abstract
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Hypertension is a major modifiable contributor to disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. We exploited an expansion to age eligibility for men in South Africa's noncontributory public pension to assess the impact of pension eligibility on hypertension in a rural, low-income South African setting. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data were from 1 247 men aged ≥60 in the population-representative Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa in 2014/2015. We identified cohorts of men from 0 (controls, aged ≥65 at pension expansion) through 5 years of additional pension eligibility based on their birth year. Using the modified Framingham Heart Study hypertension risk prediction model, and the Wand et al. model modified for the South African population, we estimated the difference in the probabilities of hypertension for men who benefitted from the pension expansion relative to the control. We conducted a negative control analysis among older women, who were not eligible for pension expansion, to assess the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Older men with 5 additional years of pension eligibility had a 6.9-8.1 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected without the pension expansion eligibility. After accounting for birth cohort effects through a negative control analysis involving older women reduced estimates to a 3.0-5.2 percentage point greater probability of hypertension than expected. We observed a mean 0.2 percentage point increase in the probability of hypertension per additional year of pension eligibility, but this trend was not statistically significant. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Although the Older Person's Grant is important for improving the financial circumstances of older adults and their families in South Africa, expanded pension eligibility may have a small, negative short-term effect on hypertension among older men in this rural, South African setting.