Abstract
BACKGROUND: Coronary artery disease (CAD) is a major cause of death and disability worldwide. Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) is a noninvasive imaging technique with a high negative predictive value (NPV). Most studies were done in developed countries, where the prevalence of CAD does not reflect the actual disease burden in developing countries, such as Lebanon. METHODS: We retrospectively evaluated the prognostic value of CCTA in predicting acute myocardial events (AMEs) in 200 Lebanese patients. We determined if specific medical and radiological characteristics are linked with AME and looked for any association between the patient's medical risk factors and the type/location of detected atheromatous plaques. Patients' records were reviewed, and the follow-up period of 5-8 years ensued. Chi-square/Fisher test and Student's t-test were used, in addition to multinomial logistic regression to adjust for the confounding variables. P <0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: Our study showed that CCTA had a NPV that reaches 97.9% in asymptomatic patients, a positive predictive value (PPV) of 76.4% for symptomatic patients, a sensitivity of 88.9%, and a specificity of 52.5%. AMEs were significantly increased in patients with a mixed plaque type and/or a moderate-to-severe lumen reduction on CCTA. CONCLUSIONS: CCTA is a sensitive modality for plaque detection and is found to have a remarkably high NPV for asymptomatic patients. A CCTA, along with a low pretest clinical probability of CAD, can be sufficient to rule out an AME for up to 8 years.