Abstract
BACKGROUND: Dementia has no known cure and age is its strongest predictor. Given that populations in the Caribbean are aging, a focus on policies and programs that reduce the risk of dementia and its risk factors is required. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the proportion of dementia in the Jamaican setting attributable to key factors. METHODS: We analyzed the contribution of five modifiable risk factors to dementia prevalence in Jamaica using a modified Levin's Attributable Risk formula (low educational attainment, diabetes, smoking status, depression, and physical inactivity). Four sources of data were used: risk factor prevalence was obtained from the Jamaica Health and Lifestyle Survey, 2008, relative risk data were sourced from published meta-analyses, shared variance among risk factors was determined using cross-sectional data from the Health and Social Status of Older Persons in Jamaica Study. Estimated future prevalence of dementia in Jamaica was sourced from a published ADI/BUPA report which focused on dementia in the Americas. We computed the number of dementia cases attributable to each risk factor and estimated the effect of a reduction in these risk factors on future dementia prevalence. RESULTS: Accounting for the overlapping of risk factors, 34.46% of dementia cases in Jamaica (6548 cases) were attributable to the five risk factors under study. We determined that if each risk factor were to be reduced by 5% -10% per decade from 2010-2050, dementia prevalence could be reduced by up to 14.0%. CONCLUSION: As the risk factors for dementia are shared with several of the main causes of death in Jamaica, a reduction in risk factors by even 5% can result in considerable public health benefit.