Abstract
We quantitatively evaluated the cumulative ecological risks from multiple pesticides used in paddy fields in Japan. Moreover, we visualized the temporal and regional variability of those risks for 1990-2010. Considering the region-specific parameters of environmental conditions, region-specific predicted environmental concentrations were estimated at 350 river-flow monitoring sites in Japan. Then the multi-substance potentially affected fraction (msPAF) was calculated as a risk index of multiple pesticides by using the computation tool NIAES-CERAP. The median msPAF values for insecticides and herbicides decreased by 92.4% and 53.1%, respectively, from 1990 to 2010. This substantial reduction in ecological risk was attributed to the development of low-risk pesticides by manufacturers, the efforts of farmers in risk reduction, and tighter regulation by the Japanese government. In particular, the substantial reduction of the ecological risk from insecticides was largely due to the decrease in the use of organophosphorus insecticides.