Economic aspects of evacuation and resettlement after a radioactive fallout in Sweden

瑞典放射性尘埃事件后疏散和安置的经济问题

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Abstract

High energy prices recently have moved nuclear power back into the limelight. The biggest risk of nuclear industry has been large-scale accidents that give rise to ground deposition of long-lived fission products such as 137Cs, notably Chernobyl in 1986 (Ukraine) and Fukushima in 2011 (Japan). In Japan, extensive land remediation of residential areas was carried out at an estimated direct cost between 16 and 41 billion Euros. We have studied a hypothetical radioactive fallout scenario in Sweden and then applied a cost-benefit analysis on remediation of urban land and resettlement of evacuees. Direct costs for remediation of amounts to ⁓100 million Euro/km2 (2020 price levels). For an average city in Sweden the costs related to evacuation and decontamination greatly exceed the potential monetary benefits from averting radiation induced cancers. Thus, based solely on financial factors, it is concluded that an exhaustive evacuation and resettlement is not monetary cost-effective.

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