Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Extracapsular extension (ECE) in regional lymph nodes and positive surgical margins (PSM) are considered high-risk adverse pathologic features in patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) that each constitute an indication for postoperative adjuvant chemoradiation. We identify pre-operative clinical factors that can predict post-operative ECE and/or PSM and create a nomogram to help clinical decision making. METHODS: Adult patients with non-metastatic OPSCC with initial surgical treatment and confirmed HPV status diagnosed between 2010 and 2014 were selected from the National Cancer Database. Clinical staging was modified to American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th edition parameters. Logistic regression was used for multivariate analysis to identify predictors of pathologic ECE and/or PSM. RESULTS: 5065 patients were included. 47.5% of the 3336 HPV-positive (HPV+) patients had ECE/PSM. 40.4% of the 1729 HPV-negative (HPV-) patients with had ECE/PSM. A model was built that included age, clinical ECE, tumor grade, and clinical T and N staging for HPV+ patients. Increasing N-classification was highly predictive of pathologic ECE and/or PSM (N1 OR = 3.6, N2 OR = 7.0, N3 OR = 11.2, p < 0.01). Clinical ECE (OR = 4.1, p < 0.01), tumor grade (ORs 2.2-4.4 with p < 0.05), and increasing clinical T-classification (ORs 1.2-1.8, p < 0.05) were also associated with ECE and/or PSM. A similar model was built for HPV- with similar predictive capability. Two internally validated nomograms were designed that demonstrated good discrimination (HPV+ AUC = 0.66, 95% CI: 0.64-0.68, and HPV- AUC = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.67-0.72) and good calibration (goodness-of-fit statistic of HPV+ 6.32, p = 0.61 and HPV- 11.66, p = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: These are the first nomograms designed to help predict ECE or PSM for both HPV+ and HPV- OPSCC. The nomograms can facilitate shared decision-making between clinicians and patients as they consider upfront treatment selection for OPSCC.