Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The standard of care for people with locally advanced lung cancer (LALC) who cannot be operated on is (chemo)-radiation. Despite the application of dose constraints, acute pulmonary toxicity (APT) still often occurs. Prediction of APT is of paramount importance for the development of innovative therapeutic combinations. The two models were previously individually created. With success, the Rad-model incorporated six radiomics functions. After additional validation in prospective cohorts, a Pmap-model was created by identifying a specific region of the right posterior lung and incorporating several clinical and dosimetric parameters. To create and test a novel model to forecast the risk of APT in two cohorts receiving volumetric arctherapy radiotherapy (VMAT), we aimed to include all the variables in this study. METHODS: In the training cohort, we retrospectively included all patients treated by VMAT for LALC at one institution between 2015 and 2018. APT was assessed according to the CTCAE v4.0 scale. Usual clinical and dosimetric features, as well as the mean dose to the pre-defined Pmap zone (DMean(Pmap)), were processed using a neural network approach and subsequently validated on an observational prospective cohort. The model was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) and balanced accuracy (Bacc). RESULTS: 165 and 42 patients were enrolled in the training and test cohorts, with APT rates of 22.4 and 19.1%, respectively. The AUCs for the Rad and Pmap models in the validation cohort were 0.83 and 0.81, respectively, whereas the AUC for the combined model (Comb-model) was 0.90. The Bacc for the Rad, Pmap, and Comb models in the validation cohort were respectively 78.7, 82.4, and 89.7%. CONCLUSION: The accuracy of prediction models were increased by combining radiomics, DMean(Pmap), and common clinical and dosimetric features. The use of this model may improve the evaluation of APT risk and provide access to novel therapeutic alternatives, such as dose escalation or creative therapy combinations.