Abstract
We aimed to investigate the relation between largest lesion diameter, prostate-specific antigen density (PSA-D), age, and the detection of clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) using first-time targeted biopsy (TBx) in men with Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 3 index lesions. A total of 292 men (2013-2019) from two referral centers were included. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed. The discrimination and clinical utility of the built model was assessed by the area under the receiver operation curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis, respectively. A higher PSA-D and higher age were significantly related to a higher risk of detecting csPCa, while the largest index lesion diameter was not. The discrimination of the model was 0.80 (95% CI 0.73-0.87). When compared to a biopsy-all strategy, decision curve analysis showed a higher net benefit at threshold probabilities of ≥2%. Accepting a missing ≤5% of csPCa diagnoses, a risk-based approach would result in 34% of TBx sessions and 23% of low-risk PCa diagnoses being avoided. In men with PI-RADS 3 index lesions scheduled for first-time TBx, the balance between the number of TBx sessions, the detection of low-risk PCa, and the detection of csPCa does not warrant a biopsy-all strategy. To minimize the risk of missing the diagnosis of csPCa but acknowledging the need of avoiding unnecessary TBx sessions and overdiagnosis, a risk-based approach is advisable.