Abstract
BACKGROUND: The CHA2DS2-VASC score is used to assess the risk of cerebrovascular accident (CVA) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFL). OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether this score can determine the risk of CVA during the first year after hospitalization, in patients without known AF/AFL. DESIGN: Single-center retrospective cohort. PATIENTS: We included all patients aged ≥ 50 who were hospitalized between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2018, to the internal medicine departments at the Chaim Sheba Medical Center, Israel. Exclusion criteria included history or new diagnosis of CVA, TIA, and AF/AFL and use of anticoagulation at any time. MAIN MEASURES: Patients were stratified into 3 groups according to their CHA2DS2-VASC score (0-1, 2, or ≥ 3). The primary outcome was hospitalization with CVA/TIA within one year of the index hospitalization. KEY RESULTS: Of the patients, 52,206 were included in the study. CVA/TIA occurred in 0.7%, 1.3%, and 1.7% of patients with a CHA2DS2-VASC score of 0-1, 2, and ≥ 3, respectively. Compared to a CHA2DS2-VASC score of 0-1, the HR for CVA/TIA occurrence for CHA2DS2-VASC scores of 2 and ≥ 3 was 1.77 (CI 1.42, 2.22) and 2.33 (CI 1.9, 2.85), respectively (p < 0.001 for both comparisons). Each additional CHA2DS2-VASC point increased the probability for readmission with CVA/TIA within 1-year by 26% (HR 1.26, CI 1.19, 1.32, p < 0.001). Similar trends were seen in subgroup analyses by gender, age, and renal function. CONCLUSIONS: The CHA2DS2-VASC score is a predictor for CVA/TIA during the first year after hospitalization in patients without AF. High CHA2DS2-VASC scores warrant work-up for occult AF/AFL and other risk factors for CVA/TIA.