Abstract
BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is a prevalent and hazardous injury among the elderly population that often results in intensive care unit (ICU) admission due to various complications, despite advanced medical science. One common complication experienced in the ICU by elderly hip fracture patients is heart failure, which significantly impacts short-term survival rates. Currently, there is a deficit of adequate predictive models to forecast the short-term risk of death following heart failure for elderly hip fracture patients in the ICU. This study aims to identify independent risk factors for all-cause mortality within 30 days for elderly patients with hip fractures and heart failure while in the ICU in order to develop a predictive model. METHOD: A total of 641 elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure were recruited from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV dataset and randomized to the training and validation sets. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality within 30 days. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to reduce data dimensionality and select features. Multivariate logistic regression was used to build predictive models. Consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to measure the predictive performance of the nomogram. RESULT: Our results showed that these variables including MCH, MCV, INR, monocyte percentage, neutrophils percentage, creatinine, and combined sepsis were independent factors for death within 30 days in elderly patients with hip fracture combined with heart failure in the ICU. The C-index was 0.869 (95% CI 0.823-0.916) and 0.824 (95% CI 0.749-0.900) for the training and validation sets, respectively. The results of the area under the curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed that the nomogram performed well in predicting elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure in the ICU. CONCLUSION: We developed a new nomogram model for predicting 30-day all-cause mortality in elderly patients with hip fractures combined with heart failure in the ICU, which could be a valid and useful clinical tool for clinicians for targeted treatment and prognosis prediction.