Prediction accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values for fruit traits in cultivated tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.)

Genomic selection (GS) is an efficient breeding strategy to improve quantitative traits. It is necessary to calculate genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for GS. This study investigated the prediction accuracy of GEBVs for five fruit traits including fruit weight, fruit width, fruit height, pericarp thickness, and Brix. Two tomato germplasm collections (TGC1 and TGC2) were used as training populations, consisting of 162 and 191 accessions, respectively.

Our study explored several factors to increase the prediction accuracy of GEBVs for fruit traits in tomato. The results can facilitate development of advanced GS strategies with cost-effective marker sets for improving fruit traits as well as other traits. Consequently, GS will be successfully applied to accelerate the tomato breeding process for developing elite cultivars.

Large phenotypic variations for the fruit traits were found in these collections and the 51K Axiom™ SNP array generated confident 31,142 SNPs. Prediction accuracy was evaluated using different cross-validation methods, GS models, and marker sets in three training populations (TGC1, TGC2, and combined). For cross-validation, LOOCV was effective as k-fold across traits and training populations. The parametric (RR-BLUP, Bayes A, and Bayesian LASSO) and non-parametric (RKHS, SVM, and random forest) models showed different prediction accuracies (0.594-0.870) between traits and training populations. Of these, random forest was the best model for fruit weight (0.780-0.835), fruit width (0.791-0.865), and pericarp thickness (0.643-0.866). The effect of marker density was trait-dependent and reached a plateau for each trait with 768-12,288 SNPs. Two additional sets of 192 and 96 SNPs from GWAS revealed higher prediction accuracies for the fruit traits compared to the 31,142 SNPs and eight subsets.