Abstract
Extensive evidence links adverse experiences during childhood to a wide range of negative consequences in biological, socioemotional, and cognitive development. Unpredictability is a core element underlying most forms of early adversity; it has been a focus of developmental research for many years and has been receiving increasing attention recently. In this article, we propose a conceptual model to describe how unpredictable and adverse early experiences affect children's neurobiological, behavioral, and psychological development in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We first highlight the critical role of unpredictability in child development by reviewing existing conceptual models of early adversity as they relate to subsequent development across the lifespan. Then, we employ a translational neuroscience framework to summarize the current animal- and human-based evidence on the neurobiological alterations induced by early experience unpredictability. We further argue that the COVID-19 pandemic serves as a global "natural experiment" that provides rare insight to the investigation of the negative developmental consequences of widespread, clustered, and unpredictable adverse events among children. We discuss how the pandemic helps advance the science of unpredictable early adverse experiences. As unpredictability research continues to grow, we highlight several directions for future studies and implications for policymaking and intervention practices.