Age-differentiated incentives for adaptive behavior during epidemics produce oscillatory and chaotic dynamics

流行病期间,不同年龄段人群的适应性行为激励机制存在差异,从而导致振荡和混沌动力学现象。

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Abstract

Heterogeneity in contact patterns, mortality rates, and transmissibility among and between different age classes can have significant effects on epidemic outcomes. Adaptive behavior in response to the spread of an infectious pathogen may give rise to complex epidemiological dynamics. Here we model an infectious disease in which adaptive behavior incentives, and mortality rates, can vary between two and three age classes. The model indicates that age-dependent variability in infection aversion can produce more complex epidemic dynamics at lower levels of pathogen transmissibility and that those at less risk of infection can still drive complexity in the dynamics of those at higher risk of infection. Policymakers should consider the interdependence of such heterogeneous groups when making decisions.

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