Social distancing versus early detection and contacts tracing in epidemic management

疫情管理中的社交隔离与早期发现和接触者追踪

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Abstract

Different countries - and sometimes different regions within the same countries - have adopted different strategies in trying to contain the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic; these mix in variable parts social confinement, early detection and contact tracing. In this paper we discuss the different effects of these ingredients on the epidemic dynamics; the discussion is conducted with the help of two simple models, i.e. the classical SIR model and the recently introduced variant A-SIR (arXiv:2003.08720) which takes into account the presence of a large set of asymptomatic infectives.

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