Abstract
Our hypothesis about evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic foresees an inverse relation between infectivity (R0) and lethality (L) of SARS-CoV-2. The above parameters are driven by a continuing mutation process granting the virus a clear survival advantage over virulence. For interpreting this relation we adopted a simple equation, R0 × L ≈ k, by which R0 and L depend upon a constant k, that corresponds to an intrinsic property of the viral species involved. The hypothesis was verified by following changes of the R0 and L terms of the formula in the different variants of SARS-CoV-2 that progressively appeared. A further validation came when the equation was applied to pandemic and epidemic influenza type A viruses, Ebola virus and measles virus. We believe this equation that considers virus biology in Darwinian terms could be extremely useful to better face infectious viral threats and validate virus-host molecular interactions relevant to viral pathogenesis.