Abstract
The impact of a public health emergency on a society and economy depends upon two factors: one is the harmful nature of the event along with its duration, and the other is the effect of the social response and measures. Both of these factors are wrought with uncertainty. Firstly, the nature of the event itself is uncertain, for example there may be a lack of understanding regarding the virulence of the epidemic. Secondly, different intervention measures bring about varying uncertainties, such as the potentially infected cases reduced using the health campaigning measures to change people’s actions in an epidemic.