Abstract
As Ellen et al. point out, there is room for improvement in knowledge transfer between academic research and policymaking. At the same time, retrospective analyses of health policy often identify research influences on policymaking. Part of this paradox can be explained by the difference between the nature of research and the nature of policymaking. Research necessarily focuses on the past, examining changes that have already taken place. Policymakers want to understand how policy will shape the future. A key element of successful knowledge transfer is the use of mechanisms that allow past research to be used to forecast future policy consequences. One such mechanism is the formal microsimulation model, which translates research-based parameters into out-of-sample forecasts. A more straightforward mechanism is the embedded researcher, who extrapolates from a body of research knowledge to make a policy forecast. These types of mechanisms can supplement formal processes of knowledge transfer.