Abstract
BACKGROUND: Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) using cell-free fetal DNA in maternal plasma is a high accurate test for prenatal screening for Down syndrome. Although it has been reported to be cost effective as a contingent test, evidence about its budget impact is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate, using computer simulations, the budget impact of implementing NIPT as a contingent test in the Quebec Program of screening for Trisomy 21. METHODS: A semi-Markov analytic model built to simulate the budget impact of implementing NIPT into the current Quebec Trisomy 21 public Prenatal Screening, Serum Integrated prenatal screening (SIPS). Comparisons were made for a virtual population similar to that of expected Quebec pregnant women in 2015 in terms of size and age. Data input parameters were retrieved from a thorough literature search and in government databases, especially data from Quebec Program of screening for Trisomy 21. The 2015-2016 fiscal year budget impact was estimated from the Quebec healthcare system perspective and was expressed as the difference in the overall costs between the two alternatives (SIPS minus SPS + NIPT). RESULTS: Our study found that, at a baseline cost for NIPT of CAD$ 795, NIPT as a second-tier test offered to high-risk women identified by current screening program (SIPS + NIPT) may be affordable for Quebec health care system. Compared to the current screening program, it would be implemented at a neutral cost, considering a modest annual savings of $ 80,432 (95% CI $ 79, $ 874-$ 81,462). Results were sensitive to the NIPT costs and the uptake-rate of invasive diagnostic tests. CONCLUSION: Introducing NIPT as a contingent test in the Quebec Trisomy 21 screening program is an affordable strategy compared to the current practice. Further research is needed to confirm if our results can be reproduced in other healthcare jurisdictions.